Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mtibwa Sugar vs JKT Tanzania — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Mtibwa Sugar
Mtibwa Sugar
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
JKT Tanzania
JKT Tanzania
J. Ganambali 44'
N. Maguli 87'
D. Lyanga 21'
11/3/2023Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 9Manungu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Mtibwa Sugar36%
×Draw27%
JKT Tanzania36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mtibwa Sugar
1.25
JKT Tanzania
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

creates per match

Mtibwa Sugar
1.27
JKT Tanzania
0.95

allows per match

Mtibwa Sugar
1.55
JKT Tanzania
1.23

finishing

Mtibwa Sugar+0.00on par
JKT Tanzania+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mtibwa Sugar ↓

JKT Tanzania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mtibwa Sugar or draw
64%
Mtibwa Sugar or JKT Tanzania
73%
Draw or JKT Tanzania
64%

Winning margin

Mtibwa Sugar wins by 2+
16%
JKT Tanzania wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mtibwa Sugar 1+ goals
71%
Mtibwa Sugar 2+ goals
36%
Mtibwa Sugar 3+ goals
13%
JKT Tanzania 1+ goals
71%
JKT Tanzania 2+ goals
36%
JKT Tanzania 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Mtibwa Sugar (draw refunded)
50%
JKT Tanzania (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mtibwa Sugar at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

JKT Tanzania away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mtibwa Sugar attack 1.27 + JKT Tanzania defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

JKT Tanzania attack 0.95 + Mtibwa Sugar defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Mtibwa Sugar scores more
36%
level
27%
JKT Tanzania scores more
36%

Mtibwa Sugar at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Mtibwa Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
D. Lyanga
44'
J. Ganambali
87'
N. Maguli

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mtibwa Sugar vs JKT Tanzania

JKT Tanzania beat Mtibwa Sugar 2-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on November 3, 2023.

Goals: D. Lyanga (21'), J. Ganambali (44'), N. Maguli (87').

The match was played at Manungu Stadium in Turiani.