Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

JKT Tanzania vs Mtibwa Sugar — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

JKT Tanzania
JKT Tanzania
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mtibwa Sugar
Mtibwa Sugar
S. Sabilo 90'
E. Katanga 6'
C. Ilanfya 23'
4/29/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 24Isamuhyo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

JKT Tanzania53%
×Draw28%
Mtibwa Sugar18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JKT Tanzania
1.34
Mtibwa Sugar
0.66

JKT Tanzania creates 103% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 23 away

creates per match

JKT Tanzania
1.04
Mtibwa Sugar
0.48

allows per match

JKT Tanzania
0.84
Mtibwa Sugar
1.65

finishing

JKT Tanzania+0.00on par
Mtibwa Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JKT Tanzania ↓

Mtibwa Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

JKT Tanzania or draw
82%
JKT Tanzania or Mtibwa Sugar
72%
Draw or Mtibwa Sugar
47%

Winning margin

JKT Tanzania wins by 2+
26%
Mtibwa Sugar wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

JKT Tanzania 1+ goals
74%
JKT Tanzania 2+ goals
39%
JKT Tanzania 3+ goals
15%
Mtibwa Sugar 1+ goals
48%
Mtibwa Sugar 2+ goals
14%
Mtibwa Sugar 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

JKT Tanzania (draw refunded)
74%
Mtibwa Sugar (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JKT Tanzania at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.84 · 25 matches

Mtibwa Sugar away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.65 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JKT Tanzania attack 1.04 + Mtibwa Sugar defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.34

Mtibwa Sugar attack 0.48 + JKT Tanzania defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

JKT Tanzania scores more
53%
level
28%
Mtibwa Sugar scores more
18%

JKT Tanzania at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "JKT Tanzania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
E. Katanga
23'
C. Ilanfya
90'
S. Sabilo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JKT Tanzania vs Mtibwa Sugar

JKT Tanzania beat Mtibwa Sugar 2-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on April 29, 2024.

Goals: E. Katanga (6'), C. Ilanfya (23'), S. Sabilo (90').

The match was played at Isamuhyo Stadium in Dar-es-Salaam.