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Mtibwa Sugar vs Geita Gold — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Mtibwa Sugar
Mtibwa Sugar
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Geita Gold
Geita Gold
C. Ilanfya 55' (pen), 47' (pen), 12'
Kameta 41'
6/9/2023Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 30Manungu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mtibwa Sugar43%
×Draw29%
Geita Gold28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mtibwa Sugar
1.24
Geita Gold
0.94

Mtibwa Sugar creates 32% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 45 away

creates per match

Mtibwa Sugar
1.08
Geita Gold
0.82

allows per match

Mtibwa Sugar
1.06
Geita Gold
1.40

finishing

Mtibwa Sugar+0.00on par
Geita Gold+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mtibwa Sugar ↓

Geita Gold →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mtibwa Sugar or draw
72%
Mtibwa Sugar or Geita Gold
71%
Draw or Geita Gold
57%

Winning margin

Mtibwa Sugar wins by 2+
19%
Geita Gold wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mtibwa Sugar 1+ goals
71%
Mtibwa Sugar 2+ goals
35%
Mtibwa Sugar 3+ goals
13%
Geita Gold 1+ goals
61%
Geita Gold 2+ goals
24%
Geita Gold 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mtibwa Sugar (draw refunded)
61%
Geita Gold (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mtibwa Sugar at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.06 · 97 matches

Geita Gold away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mtibwa Sugar attack 1.08 + Geita Gold defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.24

Geita Gold attack 0.82 + Mtibwa Sugar defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mtibwa Sugar scores more
43%
level
29%
Geita Gold scores more
28%

Mtibwa Sugar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mtibwa Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
C. Ilanfya
41'
Kameta
47'
C. IlanfyaPenalty
55'
C. IlanfyaPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mtibwa Sugar vs Geita Gold

Mtibwa Sugar beat Geita Gold 3-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on June 9, 2023.

Goals: C. Ilanfya (12', 47' pen, 55' pen), Kameta (41').

The match was played at Manungu Stadium in Turiani.