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Geita Gold vs Mtibwa Sugar — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Geita Gold
Geita Gold
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Mtibwa Sugar
Mtibwa Sugar
J. Luzio 45'
S. Ntibazonkiza 33'
A. Adam 90+2'
O. Mayaya 10'
12/4/2022Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 15Nyankumbu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Geita Gold48%
×Draw29%
Mtibwa Sugar24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Geita Gold
1.30
Mtibwa Sugar
0.83

Geita Gold creates 57% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 95 away

creates per match

Geita Gold
1.09
Mtibwa Sugar
0.63

allows per match

Geita Gold
1.04
Mtibwa Sugar
1.51

finishing

Geita Gold+0.00on par
Mtibwa Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geita Gold ↓

Mtibwa Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Geita Gold or draw
76%
Geita Gold or Mtibwa Sugar
71%
Draw or Mtibwa Sugar
52%

Winning margin

Geita Gold wins by 2+
22%
Mtibwa Sugar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Geita Gold 1+ goals
73%
Geita Gold 2+ goals
37%
Geita Gold 3+ goals
14%
Mtibwa Sugar 1+ goals
56%
Mtibwa Sugar 2+ goals
20%
Mtibwa Sugar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Geita Gold (draw refunded)
67%
Mtibwa Sugar (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geita Gold at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

Mtibwa Sugar away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.51 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geita Gold attack 1.09 + Mtibwa Sugar defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.30

Mtibwa Sugar attack 0.63 + Geita Gold defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Geita Gold scores more
48%
level
29%
Mtibwa Sugar scores more
24%

Geita Gold at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Geita Gold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
O. Mayaya
33'
S. Ntibazonkiza
45'
J. Luzio↳ S. Ntibazonkiza
57'
90+2'
A. Adam

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Geita Gold vs Mtibwa Sugar

Geita Gold and Mtibwa Sugar drew 2-2 in Ligi kuu Bara on December 4, 2022.

Goals: O. Mayaya (10'), S. Ntibazonkiza (33'), J. Luzio (45'), A. Adam (90+2').

The match was played at Nyankumbu Stadium in Geita.