Mtibwa Sugar 0–1 Fountain Gate: Result & Stats

Mtibwa Sugar

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Fountain Gate

E. Rupia 43'

10/5/2023

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 4Manungu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Mtibwa Sugar43%

×Draw28%

Fountain Gate30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mtibwa SugarExpected goals in this matchFountain Gate

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.06

Mtibwa Sugar

1.32

Fountain Gate

1.06

Mtibwa Sugar creates 25% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 34 away

1.15

creates per match

0.74

1.39

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Mtibwa Sugar

1.15

Fountain Gate

0.74

allows per match

Mtibwa Sugar

1.39

Fountain Gate

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mtibwa Sugar+0.00on par

Fountain Gate+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mtibwa Sugar ↓

Fountain Gate →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Mtibwa Sugar or draw

70%

Mtibwa Sugar or Fountain Gate

72%

Draw or Fountain Gate

57%

Winning margin

Mtibwa Sugar wins by 2+

20%

Fountain Gate wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mtibwa Sugar 1+ goals

73%

Mtibwa Sugar 2+ goals

38%

Mtibwa Sugar 3+ goals

15%

Fountain Gate 1+ goals

65%

Fountain Gate 2+ goals

29%

Fountain Gate 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Mtibwa Sugar (draw refunded)

59%

Fountain Gate (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mtibwa Sugar at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

Fountain Gate away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mtibwa Sugar attack 1.15 + Fountain Gate defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Fountain Gate attack 0.74 + Mtibwa Sugar defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mtibwa Sugar scores more

43%

level

28%

Fountain Gate scores more

30%

Mtibwa Sugar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mtibwa Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

E. Rupia

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff