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Fountain Gate vs Mtibwa Sugar — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Fountain Gate
Fountain Gate
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Mtibwa Sugar
Mtibwa Sugar
O. A. Marungu 75'
A. Hassan 69'
3/2/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 19CCM Kirumba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Fountain Gate46%
×Draw27%
Mtibwa Sugar26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fountain Gate
1.38
Mtibwa Sugar
0.97

Fountain Gate creates 42% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 31 away

creates per match

Fountain Gate
1.11
Mtibwa Sugar
0.55

allows per match

Fountain Gate
1.40
Mtibwa Sugar
1.65

finishing

Fountain Gate+0.00on par
Mtibwa Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fountain Gate ↓

Mtibwa Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Fountain Gate or draw
74%
Fountain Gate or Mtibwa Sugar
73%
Draw or Mtibwa Sugar
54%

Winning margin

Fountain Gate wins by 2+
22%
Mtibwa Sugar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fountain Gate 1+ goals
75%
Fountain Gate 2+ goals
40%
Fountain Gate 3+ goals
16%
Mtibwa Sugar 1+ goals
62%
Mtibwa Sugar 2+ goals
25%
Mtibwa Sugar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Fountain Gate (draw refunded)
64%
Mtibwa Sugar (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fountain Gate at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.40 · 35 matches

Mtibwa Sugar away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.65 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fountain Gate attack 1.11 + Mtibwa Sugar defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.38

Mtibwa Sugar attack 0.55 + Fountain Gate defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fountain Gate scores more
46%
level
27%
Mtibwa Sugar scores more
26%

Fountain Gate at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fountain Gate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

69'
A. Hassan
75'
O. A. Marungu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Fountain Gate 0–2 Mtibwa Sugar

Mtibwa Sugar beat Fountain Gate 2-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on March 2, 2024.

Goals: A. Hassan (69'), O. A. Marungu (75').

The match was played at CCM Kirumba Stadium in Mwanza.