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MTE 1904 vs Andráshida — NB III - Southwest 2019

MTE 1904
MTE 1904
FT
4 – 0
Andráshida
Andráshida
11/28/2021NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 19Wittmann Antal park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

MTE 190490%
×Draw7%
Andráshida3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MTE 1904
3.66
Andráshida
0.61

MTE 1904 creates 500% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 19 away

creates per match

MTE 1904
2.69
Andráshida
0.63

allows per match

MTE 1904
0.60
Andráshida
4.63

finishing

MTE 1904+0.00on par
Andráshida+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MTE 1904 ↓

Andráshida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–17%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (12%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

MTE 1904 or draw
97%
MTE 1904 or Andráshida
93%
Draw or Andráshida
10%

Winning margin

MTE 1904 wins by 2+
75%
Andráshida wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

MTE 1904 1+ goals
97%
MTE 1904 2+ goals
87%
MTE 1904 3+ goals
68%
Andráshida 1+ goals
46%
Andráshida 2+ goals
13%
Andráshida 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

MTE 1904 (draw refunded)
97%
Andráshida (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MTE 1904 at home — creates 2.69, concedes 0.60 · 48 matches

Andráshida away — creates 0.63, concedes 4.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MTE 1904 attack 2.69 + Andráshida defence 4.63 → ÷2 → 3.66

Andráshida attack 0.63 + MTE 1904 defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

MTE 1904 scores more
90%
level
7%
Andráshida scores more
3%

MTE 1904 at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "MTE 1904 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: MTE 1904 4–0 Andráshida

MTE 1904 beat Andráshida 4-0 in NB III - Southwest on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at Wittmann Antal park in Mosonmagyaróvár.