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Andráshida vs MTE 1904 — NB III - Southwest 2019

Andráshida
Andráshida
FT
1 – 6
MTE 1904
MTE 1904
5/29/2022NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 38Andráshida SC Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Andráshida15%
×Draw19%
MTE 190466%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Andráshida
0.95
MTE 1904
2.24

MTE 1904 creates 136% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 47 away

creates per match

Andráshida
0.74
MTE 1904
2.00

allows per match

Andráshida
2.47
MTE 1904
1.17

finishing

Andráshida+0.00on par
MTE 1904+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andráshida ↓

MTE 1904 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Andráshida or draw
34%
Andráshida or MTE 1904
81%
Draw or MTE 1904
85%

Winning margin

Andráshida wins by 2+
5%
MTE 1904 wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Andráshida 1+ goals
61%
Andráshida 2+ goals
25%
Andráshida 3+ goals
7%
MTE 1904 1+ goals
89%
MTE 1904 2+ goals
65%
MTE 1904 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Andráshida (draw refunded)
18%
MTE 1904 (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andráshida at home — creates 0.74, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

MTE 1904 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andráshida attack 0.74 + MTE 1904 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.95

MTE 1904 attack 2.00 + Andráshida defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Andráshida scores more
15%
level
19%
MTE 1904 scores more
66%

MTE 1904 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "MTE 1904 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Andráshida vs MTE 1904

MTE 1904 beat Andráshida 6-1 in NB III - Southwest on May 29, 2022.

The match was played at Andráshida SC Sporttelep in Andráshida.