Mt Druitt Town 1–0 Bonnyrigg White Eagles

Mt Druitt Town

FT

1 – 0

Bonnyrigg White Eagles

2/18/2024

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 1Popondetta Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Mt Druitt Town48%

×Draw22%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mt Druitt TownExpected goals in this matchBonnyrigg White Eagles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.43

Mt Druitt Town

1.88

Bonnyrigg White Eagles

1.43

Mt Druitt Town creates 31% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 62 away

1.77

creates per match

1.31

1.54

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Mt Druitt Town

1.77

Bonnyrigg White Eagles

1.31

allows per match

Mt Druitt Town

1.54

Bonnyrigg White Eagles

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mt Druitt Town+0.00on par

Bonnyrigg White Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mt Druitt Town ↓

Bonnyrigg White Eagles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Mt Druitt Town or draw

71%

Mt Druitt Town or Bonnyrigg White Eagles

78%

Draw or Bonnyrigg White Eagles

52%

Winning margin

Mt Druitt Town wins by 2+

27%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mt Druitt Town 1+ goals

85%

Mt Druitt Town 2+ goals

56%

Mt Druitt Town 3+ goals

29%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles 1+ goals

76%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles 2+ goals

42%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Mt Druitt Town (draw refunded)

62%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mt Druitt Town at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

Bonnyrigg White Eagles away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.98 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mt Druitt Town attack 1.77 + Bonnyrigg White Eagles defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.88

Bonnyrigg White Eagles attack 1.31 + Mt Druitt Town defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mt Druitt Town scores more

48%

level

22%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles scores more

29%

Mt Druitt Town at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mt Druitt Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff