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Bonnyrigg White Eagles vs Mt Druitt Town — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Bonnyrigg White Eagles
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mt Druitt Town
Mt Druitt Town
A. Peterson 52'
A. Martins 19' (pen)
5/25/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 16Bonnyrigg Sports Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Bonnyrigg White Eagles40%
×Draw24%
Mt Druitt Town36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.64
Mt Druitt Town
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 27 away

creates per match

Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.57
Mt Druitt Town
1.67

allows per match

Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.42
Mt Druitt Town
1.70

finishing

Bonnyrigg White Eagles+0.00on par
Mt Druitt Town+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonnyrigg White Eagles ↓

Mt Druitt Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Bonnyrigg White Eagles or draw
64%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles or Mt Druitt Town
76%
Draw or Mt Druitt Town
60%

Winning margin

Bonnyrigg White Eagles wins by 2+
20%
Mt Druitt Town wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bonnyrigg White Eagles 1+ goals
81%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 2+ goals
49%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 3+ goals
23%
Mt Druitt Town 1+ goals
79%
Mt Druitt Town 2+ goals
45%
Mt Druitt Town 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Bonnyrigg White Eagles (draw refunded)
53%
Mt Druitt Town (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonnyrigg White Eagles at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.42 · 65 matches

Mt Druitt Town away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.70 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonnyrigg White Eagles attack 1.57 + Mt Druitt Town defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.64

Mt Druitt Town attack 1.67 + Bonnyrigg White Eagles defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bonnyrigg White Eagles scores more
40%
level
24%
Mt Druitt Town scores more
36%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bonnyrigg White Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
A. MartinsPenalty
52'
A. Peterson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Bonnyrigg White Eagles 1–1 Mt Druitt Town

Bonnyrigg White Eagles and Mt Druitt Town drew 1-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on May 25, 2024.

Goals: A. Martins (19' pen), A. Peterson (52').

The match was played at Bonnyrigg Sports Club in Sydney.