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Mt Druitt Town vs Bankstown City Lions — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Mt Druitt Town
Mt Druitt Town
FT
2 – 1
Bankstown City Lions
Bankstown City Lions
2/28/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 3Popondetta Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Mt Druitt Town41%
×Draw24%
Bankstown City Lions35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mt Druitt Town
1.66
Bankstown City Lions
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 57 away

creates per match

Mt Druitt Town
1.77
Bankstown City Lions
1.49

allows per match

Mt Druitt Town
1.54
Bankstown City Lions
1.54

finishing

Mt Druitt Town+0.00on par
Bankstown City Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mt Druitt Town ↓

Bankstown City Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Mt Druitt Town or draw
65%
Mt Druitt Town or Bankstown City Lions
76%
Draw or Bankstown City Lions
59%

Winning margin

Mt Druitt Town wins by 2+
21%
Bankstown City Lions wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Mt Druitt Town 1+ goals
81%
Mt Druitt Town 2+ goals
49%
Mt Druitt Town 3+ goals
23%
Bankstown City Lions 1+ goals
78%
Bankstown City Lions 2+ goals
45%
Bankstown City Lions 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Mt Druitt Town (draw refunded)
54%
Bankstown City Lions (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mt Druitt Town at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

Bankstown City Lions away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.54 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mt Druitt Town attack 1.77 + Bankstown City Lions defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.66

Bankstown City Lions attack 1.49 + Mt Druitt Town defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mt Druitt Town scores more
41%
level
24%
Bankstown City Lions scores more
35%

Mt Druitt Town at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mt Druitt Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mt Druitt Town vs Bankstown City Lions

Mt Druitt Town beat Bankstown City Lions 2-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on February 28, 2024.

The match was played at Popondetta Park in Emerton.