Bankstown City Lions 2–3 Mt Druitt Town

Bankstown City Lions

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Mt Druitt Town

C. Payne 67', 48' (pen)

A. Martins 34', 5'

D. Wong 30'

6/4/2024

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 18Jensen Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Bankstown City Lions42%

×Draw24%

Mt Druitt Town34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bankstown City LionsExpected goals in this matchMt Druitt Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.46

Bankstown City Lions

1.65

Mt Druitt Town

1.46

Bankstown City Lions creates 13% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 27 away

1.60

creates per match

1.67

1.25

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Bankstown City Lions

1.60

Mt Druitt Town

1.67

allows per match

Bankstown City Lions

1.25

Mt Druitt Town

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bankstown City Lions+0.00on par

Mt Druitt Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bankstown City Lions ↓

Mt Druitt Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Bankstown City Lions or draw

66%

Bankstown City Lions or Mt Druitt Town

76%

Draw or Mt Druitt Town

58%

Winning margin

Bankstown City Lions wins by 2+

22%

Mt Druitt Town wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Bankstown City Lions 1+ goals

81%

Bankstown City Lions 2+ goals

49%

Bankstown City Lions 3+ goals

23%

Mt Druitt Town 1+ goals

77%

Mt Druitt Town 2+ goals

43%

Mt Druitt Town 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Bankstown City Lions (draw refunded)

55%

Mt Druitt Town (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bankstown City Lions at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Mt Druitt Town away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.70 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bankstown City Lions attack 1.60 + Mt Druitt Town defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.65

Mt Druitt Town attack 1.67 + Bankstown City Lions defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bankstown City Lions scores more

42%

level

24%

Mt Druitt Town scores more

34%

Bankstown City Lions at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bankstown City Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

A. Martins

30'

D. Wong

34'

A. Martins

48'

C. PaynePenalty

67'

C. Payne

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff