MSV Neuruppin 1–1 BSC Süd 05: Result & Stats

MSV Neuruppin

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

BSC Süd 05

4/22/2022

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 25Volksparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

MSV Neuruppin49%

×Draw25%

BSC Süd 0526%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MSV NeuruppinExpected goals in this matchBSC Süd 05

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.11

MSV Neuruppin

1.63

BSC Süd 05

1.11

MSV Neuruppin creates 47% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 21 away

1.31

creates per match

0.76

1.47

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

MSV Neuruppin

1.31

BSC Süd 05

0.76

allows per match

MSV Neuruppin

1.47

BSC Süd 05

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MSV Neuruppin+0.00on par

BSC Süd 05+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MSV Neuruppin ↓

BSC Süd 05 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

MSV Neuruppin or draw

74%

MSV Neuruppin or BSC Süd 05

75%

Draw or BSC Süd 05

51%

Winning margin

MSV Neuruppin wins by 2+

26%

BSC Süd 05 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

MSV Neuruppin 1+ goals

80%

MSV Neuruppin 2+ goals

48%

MSV Neuruppin 3+ goals

22%

BSC Süd 05 1+ goals

67%

BSC Süd 05 2+ goals

30%

BSC Süd 05 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

MSV Neuruppin (draw refunded)

66%

BSC Süd 05 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MSV Neuruppin at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.47 · 32 matches

BSC Süd 05 away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MSV Neuruppin attack 1.31 + BSC Süd 05 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.63

BSC Süd 05 attack 0.76 + MSV Neuruppin defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

MSV Neuruppin scores more

49%

level

25%

BSC Süd 05 scores more

26%

MSV Neuruppin at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "MSV Neuruppin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff