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BSC Süd 05 vs MSV Neuruppin — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

BSC Süd 05
BSC Süd 05
FT
1 – 1
MSV Neuruppin
MSV Neuruppin
9/11/2021Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 6Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

BSC Süd 0538%
×Draw24%
MSV Neuruppin38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BSC Süd 05
1.52
MSV Neuruppin
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 33 away

creates per match

BSC Süd 05
0.85
MSV Neuruppin
1.09

allows per match

BSC Süd 05
1.95
MSV Neuruppin
2.18

finishing

BSC Süd 05+0.00on par
MSV Neuruppin+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Süd 05 ↓

MSV Neuruppin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

BSC Süd 05 or draw
62%
BSC Süd 05 or MSV Neuruppin
76%
Draw or MSV Neuruppin
62%

Winning margin

BSC Süd 05 wins by 2+
18%
MSV Neuruppin wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

BSC Süd 05 1+ goals
78%
BSC Süd 05 2+ goals
45%
BSC Süd 05 3+ goals
20%
MSV Neuruppin 1+ goals
78%
MSV Neuruppin 2+ goals
45%
MSV Neuruppin 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

BSC Süd 05 (draw refunded)
50%
MSV Neuruppin (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Süd 05 at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

MSV Neuruppin away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.18 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Süd 05 attack 0.85 + MSV Neuruppin defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.52

MSV Neuruppin attack 1.09 + BSC Süd 05 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

BSC Süd 05 scores more
38%
level
24%
MSV Neuruppin scores more
38%

BSC Süd 05 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "BSC Süd 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BSC Süd 05 vs MSV Neuruppin

BSC Süd 05 and MSV Neuruppin drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportplatz in Brandenburg an der Have.