MSV Düsseldorf 2–1 KFC Uerdingen 05: Result & Stats

MSV Düsseldorf

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

KFC Uerdingen 05

12/11/2022

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 21Paul-Janes-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

MSV Düsseldorf37%

×Draw24%

KFC Uerdingen 0539%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MSV DüsseldorfExpected goals in this matchKFC Uerdingen 05

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.53

MSV Düsseldorf

1.48

KFC Uerdingen 05

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 53 away

1.55

creates per match

1.51

1.55

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

MSV Düsseldorf

1.55

KFC Uerdingen 05

1.51

allows per match

MSV Düsseldorf

1.55

KFC Uerdingen 05

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MSV Düsseldorf+0.00on par

KFC Uerdingen 05+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MSV Düsseldorf ↓

KFC Uerdingen 05 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

MSV Düsseldorf or draw

61%

MSV Düsseldorf or KFC Uerdingen 05

76%

Draw or KFC Uerdingen 05

63%

Winning margin

MSV Düsseldorf wins by 2+

17%

KFC Uerdingen 05 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

MSV Düsseldorf 1+ goals

77%

MSV Düsseldorf 2+ goals

43%

MSV Düsseldorf 3+ goals

19%

KFC Uerdingen 05 1+ goals

78%

KFC Uerdingen 05 2+ goals

45%

KFC Uerdingen 05 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

MSV Düsseldorf (draw refunded)

49%

KFC Uerdingen 05 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MSV Düsseldorf at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

KFC Uerdingen 05 away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.40 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MSV Düsseldorf attack 1.55 + KFC Uerdingen 05 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.48

KFC Uerdingen 05 attack 1.51 + MSV Düsseldorf defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

MSV Düsseldorf scores more

37%

level

24%

KFC Uerdingen 05 scores more

39%

KFC Uerdingen 05 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "KFC Uerdingen 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff