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KFC Uerdingen 05 vs MSV Düsseldorf — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

KFC Uerdingen 05
KFC Uerdingen 05
FT
3 – 6
HT: 2 – 3
MSV Düsseldorf
MSV Düsseldorf
6/4/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 42Grotenburg-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

KFC Uerdingen 0547%
×Draw21%
MSV Düsseldorf32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KFC Uerdingen 05
2.02
MSV Düsseldorf
1.65

KFC Uerdingen 05 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 20 away

creates per match

KFC Uerdingen 05
2.19
MSV Düsseldorf
2.00

allows per match

KFC Uerdingen 05
1.30
MSV Düsseldorf
1.85

finishing

KFC Uerdingen 05+0.00on par
MSV Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFC Uerdingen 05 ↓

MSV Düsseldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

KFC Uerdingen 05 or draw
68%
KFC Uerdingen 05 or MSV Düsseldorf
79%
Draw or MSV Düsseldorf
53%

Winning margin

KFC Uerdingen 05 wins by 2+
26%
MSV Düsseldorf wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

KFC Uerdingen 05 1+ goals
87%
KFC Uerdingen 05 2+ goals
60%
KFC Uerdingen 05 3+ goals
33%
MSV Düsseldorf 1+ goals
81%
MSV Düsseldorf 2+ goals
49%
MSV Düsseldorf 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

KFC Uerdingen 05 (draw refunded)
59%
MSV Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFC Uerdingen 05 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.30 · 54 matches

MSV Düsseldorf away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFC Uerdingen 05 attack 2.19 + MSV Düsseldorf defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.02

MSV Düsseldorf attack 2.00 + KFC Uerdingen 05 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

KFC Uerdingen 05 scores more
47%
level
21%
MSV Düsseldorf scores more
32%

KFC Uerdingen 05 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "KFC Uerdingen 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: KFC Uerdingen 05 3–6 MSV Düsseldorf

MSV Düsseldorf beat KFC Uerdingen 05 6-3 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Grotenburg-Stadion in Krefeld.