Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

MSV Düsseldorf vs Homberg — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

MSV Düsseldorf
MSV Düsseldorf
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Homberg
Homberg
2/12/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 24Sportplatz GS Heidelberger Strasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

MSV Düsseldorf42%
×Draw23%
Homberg35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MSV Düsseldorf
1.69
Homberg
1.53

MSV Düsseldorf creates 10% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 71 away

creates per match

MSV Düsseldorf
1.55
Homberg
1.51

allows per match

MSV Düsseldorf
1.55
Homberg
1.83

finishing

MSV Düsseldorf+0.00on par
Homberg+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MSV Düsseldorf ↓

Homberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

MSV Düsseldorf or draw
65%
MSV Düsseldorf or Homberg
77%
Draw or Homberg
58%

Winning margin

MSV Düsseldorf wins by 2+
21%
Homberg wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

MSV Düsseldorf 1+ goals
82%
MSV Düsseldorf 2+ goals
50%
MSV Düsseldorf 3+ goals
24%
Homberg 1+ goals
78%
Homberg 2+ goals
45%
Homberg 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

MSV Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
54%
Homberg (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MSV Düsseldorf at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Homberg away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.83 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MSV Düsseldorf attack 1.55 + Homberg defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.69

Homberg attack 1.51 + MSV Düsseldorf defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

MSV Düsseldorf scores more
42%
level
23%
Homberg scores more
35%

MSV Düsseldorf at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "MSV Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MSV Düsseldorf vs Homberg

Homberg beat MSV Düsseldorf 4-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on February 12, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz GS Heidelberger Strasse in Düsseldorf.