Homberg 1–2 MSV Düsseldorf: Result & Stats

Homberg

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

MSV Düsseldorf

8/14/2022

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 3PCC-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Homberg45%

×Draw22%

MSV Düsseldorf32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HombergExpected goals in this matchMSV Düsseldorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.55

Homberg

1.86

MSV Düsseldorf

1.55

Homberg creates 20% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 20 away

1.87

creates per match

2.00

1.10

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Homberg

1.87

MSV Düsseldorf

2.00

allows per match

Homberg

1.10

MSV Düsseldorf

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Homberg+0.00on par

MSV Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Homberg ↓

MSV Düsseldorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Homberg or draw

68%

Homberg or MSV Düsseldorf

78%

Draw or MSV Düsseldorf

55%

Winning margin

Homberg wins by 2+

25%

MSV Düsseldorf wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Homberg 1+ goals

84%

Homberg 2+ goals

55%

Homberg 3+ goals

28%

MSV Düsseldorf 1+ goals

79%

MSV Düsseldorf 2+ goals

46%

MSV Düsseldorf 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Homberg (draw refunded)

58%

MSV Düsseldorf (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Homberg at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.10 · 70 matches

MSV Düsseldorf away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Homberg attack 1.87 + MSV Düsseldorf defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.86

MSV Düsseldorf attack 2.00 + Homberg defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Homberg scores more

45%

level

22%

MSV Düsseldorf scores more

32%

Homberg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Homberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff