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MSV Düsseldorf vs Germania Ratingen — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

MSV Düsseldorf
MSV Düsseldorf
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Germania Ratingen
Germania Ratingen
4/1/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 32Sportplatz GS Heidelberger Strasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

MSV Düsseldorf37%
×Draw23%
Germania Ratingen40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MSV Düsseldorf
1.61
Germania Ratingen
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 91 away

creates per match

MSV Düsseldorf
1.55
Germania Ratingen
1.85

allows per match

MSV Düsseldorf
1.55
Germania Ratingen
1.67

finishing

MSV Düsseldorf+0.00on par
Germania Ratingen+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MSV Düsseldorf ↓

Germania Ratingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

MSV Düsseldorf or draw
60%
MSV Düsseldorf or Germania Ratingen
77%
Draw or Germania Ratingen
63%

Winning margin

MSV Düsseldorf wins by 2+
18%
Germania Ratingen wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

MSV Düsseldorf 1+ goals
80%
MSV Düsseldorf 2+ goals
48%
MSV Düsseldorf 3+ goals
22%
Germania Ratingen 1+ goals
82%
Germania Ratingen 2+ goals
51%
Germania Ratingen 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

MSV Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
48%
Germania Ratingen (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MSV Düsseldorf at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Germania Ratingen away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.67 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MSV Düsseldorf attack 1.55 + Germania Ratingen defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

Germania Ratingen attack 1.85 + MSV Düsseldorf defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

MSV Düsseldorf scores more
37%
level
23%
Germania Ratingen scores more
40%

Germania Ratingen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Germania Ratingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MSV Düsseldorf vs Germania Ratingen

MSV Düsseldorf beat Germania Ratingen 3-2 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz GS Heidelberger Strasse in Düsseldorf.