Germania Ratingen 2–1 MSV Düsseldorf

Germania Ratingen

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

MSV Düsseldorf

10/2/2022

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 11Sportpark Ratingen Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Germania Ratingen48%

×Draw21%

MSV Düsseldorf31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Germania RatingenExpected goals in this matchMSV Düsseldorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.61

Germania Ratingen

2.04

MSV Düsseldorf

1.61

Germania Ratingen creates 27% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 20 away

2.22

creates per match

2.00

1.23

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Germania Ratingen

2.22

MSV Düsseldorf

2.00

allows per match

Germania Ratingen

1.23

MSV Düsseldorf

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germania Ratingen+0.00on par

MSV Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germania Ratingen ↓

MSV Düsseldorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Germania Ratingen or draw

69%

Germania Ratingen or MSV Düsseldorf

79%

Draw or MSV Düsseldorf

52%

Winning margin

Germania Ratingen wins by 2+

27%

MSV Düsseldorf wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Germania Ratingen 1+ goals

87%

Germania Ratingen 2+ goals

60%

Germania Ratingen 3+ goals

33%

MSV Düsseldorf 1+ goals

80%

MSV Düsseldorf 2+ goals

48%

MSV Düsseldorf 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Germania Ratingen (draw refunded)

61%

MSV Düsseldorf (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germania Ratingen at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.23 · 91 matches

MSV Düsseldorf away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germania Ratingen attack 2.22 + MSV Düsseldorf defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.04

MSV Düsseldorf attack 2.00 + Germania Ratingen defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Germania Ratingen scores more

48%

level

21%

MSV Düsseldorf scores more

31%

Germania Ratingen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Germania Ratingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff