MSV Düsseldorf 0–0 Cronenberger SC: Result & Stats

MSV Düsseldorf

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cronenberger SC

10/12/2022

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 13Sportplatz GS Heidelberger Strasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

MSV Düsseldorf53%

×Draw22%

Cronenberger SC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MSV DüsseldorfExpected goals in this matchCronenberger SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.33

MSV Düsseldorf

2.02

Cronenberger SC

1.33

MSV Düsseldorf creates 52% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 42 away

1.55

creates per match

1.12

1.55

allows per match

2.48

creates per match

MSV Düsseldorf

1.55

Cronenberger SC

1.12

allows per match

MSV Düsseldorf

1.55

Cronenberger SC

2.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MSV Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Cronenberger SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MSV Düsseldorf ↓

Cronenberger SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

MSV Düsseldorf or draw

75%

MSV Düsseldorf or Cronenberger SC

78%

Draw or Cronenberger SC

47%

Winning margin

MSV Düsseldorf wins by 2+

31%

Cronenberger SC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

MSV Düsseldorf 1+ goals

87%

MSV Düsseldorf 2+ goals

60%

MSV Düsseldorf 3+ goals

33%

Cronenberger SC 1+ goals

74%

Cronenberger SC 2+ goals

38%

Cronenberger SC 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

MSV Düsseldorf (draw refunded)

68%

Cronenberger SC (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MSV Düsseldorf at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Cronenberger SC away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.48 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MSV Düsseldorf attack 1.55 + Cronenberger SC defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.02

Cronenberger SC attack 1.12 + MSV Düsseldorf defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

MSV Düsseldorf scores more

53%

level

22%

Cronenberger SC scores more

25%

MSV Düsseldorf at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "MSV Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff