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Cronenberger SC vs MSV Düsseldorf — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Cronenberger SC
Cronenberger SC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
MSV Düsseldorf
MSV Düsseldorf
4/16/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 34Horst-Neuhoff-Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Cronenberger SC34%
×Draw22%
MSV Düsseldorf45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cronenberger SC
1.71
MSV Düsseldorf
1.98

MSV Düsseldorf creates 16% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 20 away

creates per match

Cronenberger SC
1.56
MSV Düsseldorf
2.00

allows per match

Cronenberger SC
1.95
MSV Düsseldorf
1.85

finishing

Cronenberger SC+0.00on par
MSV Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cronenberger SC ↓

MSV Düsseldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Cronenberger SC or draw
55%
Cronenberger SC or MSV Düsseldorf
78%
Draw or MSV Düsseldorf
66%

Winning margin

Cronenberger SC wins by 2+
17%
MSV Düsseldorf wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Cronenberger SC 1+ goals
82%
Cronenberger SC 2+ goals
51%
Cronenberger SC 3+ goals
24%
MSV Düsseldorf 1+ goals
86%
MSV Düsseldorf 2+ goals
59%
MSV Düsseldorf 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Cronenberger SC (draw refunded)
43%
MSV Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cronenberger SC at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.95 · 39 matches

MSV Düsseldorf away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cronenberger SC attack 1.56 + MSV Düsseldorf defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.71

MSV Düsseldorf attack 2.00 + Cronenberger SC defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cronenberger SC scores more
34%
level
22%
MSV Düsseldorf scores more
45%

MSV Düsseldorf at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "MSV Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cronenberger SC vs MSV Düsseldorf

Cronenberger SC beat MSV Düsseldorf 2-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Horst-Neuhoff-Sportplatz in Wuppertal.