MSV Duisburg U19 0–1 Meerbusch U19: Result & Stats

MSV Duisburg U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Meerbusch U19

V. Habarov 8'

8/10/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 2BZA Westender Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

MSV Duisburg U1952%

×Draw22%

Meerbusch U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MSV Duisburg U19Expected goals in this matchMeerbusch U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.29

MSV Duisburg U19

1.94

Meerbusch U19

1.29

MSV Duisburg U19 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 14 away

1.59

creates per match

1.14

1.45

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

MSV Duisburg U19

1.59

Meerbusch U19

1.14

allows per match

MSV Duisburg U19

1.45

Meerbusch U19

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MSV Duisburg U19+0.00on par

Meerbusch U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MSV Duisburg U19 ↓

Meerbusch U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

MSV Duisburg U19 or draw

75%

MSV Duisburg U19 or Meerbusch U19

78%

Draw or Meerbusch U19

48%

Winning margin

MSV Duisburg U19 wins by 2+

30%

Meerbusch U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

MSV Duisburg U19 1+ goals

86%

MSV Duisburg U19 2+ goals

58%

MSV Duisburg U19 3+ goals

30%

Meerbusch U19 1+ goals

72%

Meerbusch U19 2+ goals

37%

Meerbusch U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

MSV Duisburg U19 (draw refunded)

67%

Meerbusch U19 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MSV Duisburg U19 at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 64 matches

Meerbusch U19 away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MSV Duisburg U19 attack 1.59 + Meerbusch U19 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.94

Meerbusch U19 attack 1.14 + MSV Duisburg U19 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

MSV Duisburg U19 scores more

52%

level

22%

Meerbusch U19 scores more

25%

MSV Duisburg U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "MSV Duisburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

V. Habarov

46'

M. Pavlović← Z. Durmus

46'

N. Slavytskyi← Z. Anhari

64'

S. Barnes← F. Meurer

64'

K. Mischtal← J. Gaudian

64'

S. Savicevic← Y. El Kandri

72'

M. Berrahou← G. Sadlek

72'

M. Özgen← Y. Scholl

72'

D. Aserov← C. Venos

80'

E. Acikgöz← N. Gergorec

80'

P. Müller← V. Habarov

MSV

Meerbusch

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Jahn

46'▲M. Pavlović←▼Z. Durmus

46'▲N. Slavytskyi←▼Z. Anhari

64'▲S. Barnes←▼F. Meurer

72'▲M. Berrahou←▼G. Sadlek

72'▲M. Özgen←▼Y. Scholl

MSV Duisburg U19 substitutes

PavlovićSlavytskyiBarnesBerrahouÖzgenÖztürkJennissen

Manager: D. Granata

64'▲K. Mischtal←▼J. Gaudian

64'▲S. Savicevic←▼Y. El Kandri

72'▲D. Aserov←▼C. Venos

80'▲E. Acikgöz←▼N. Gergorec

80'▲P. Müller←▼V. Habarov

Meerbusch U19 substitutes

MischtalSavicevicAserovAcikgözMüllerBreuerGrabek

Match Recap: MSV Duisburg U19 vs Meerbusch U19

Meerbusch U19 beat MSV Duisburg U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on August 10, 2024.

Goals: V. Habarov (8').

The match was played at BZA Westender Straße in Duisburg.

MSV Duisburg U19 vs Meerbusch U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: MSV Duisburg U19 vs Meerbusch U19