Meerbusch U19 3–3 MSV Duisburg U19: Result & Stats

Meerbusch U19

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

MSV Duisburg U19

V. Habarov 58'

J. Karakis 44'

D. Aserov 42'

Y. Scholl 81' (pen)

N. Slavytskyi 52'

M. Berrahou 12'

10/20/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 9Rasenplatz Lank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Meerbusch U1927%

×Draw21%

MSV Duisburg U1952%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Meerbusch U19Expected goals in this matchMSV Duisburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

2.17

Meerbusch U19

1.54

MSV Duisburg U19

2.17

MSV Duisburg U19 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 68 away

1.21

creates per match

1.40

2.93

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Meerbusch U19

1.21

MSV Duisburg U19

1.40

allows per match

Meerbusch U19

2.93

MSV Duisburg U19

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meerbusch U19+0.00on par

MSV Duisburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meerbusch U19 ↓

MSV Duisburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Meerbusch U19 or draw

48%

Meerbusch U19 or MSV Duisburg U19

79%

Draw or MSV Duisburg U19

73%

Winning margin

Meerbusch U19 wins by 2+

13%

MSV Duisburg U19 wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Meerbusch U19 1+ goals

79%

Meerbusch U19 2+ goals

45%

Meerbusch U19 3+ goals

20%

MSV Duisburg U19 1+ goals

89%

MSV Duisburg U19 2+ goals

64%

MSV Duisburg U19 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Meerbusch U19 (draw refunded)

35%

MSV Duisburg U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meerbusch U19 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.93 · 14 matches

MSV Duisburg U19 away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.88 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meerbusch U19 attack 1.21 + MSV Duisburg U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.54

MSV Duisburg U19 attack 1.40 + Meerbusch U19 defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Meerbusch U19 scores more

27%

level

21%

MSV Duisburg U19 scores more

52%

MSV Duisburg U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "MSV Duisburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

M. Berrahou

42'

D. Aserov

44'

J. Karakis

46'

K. Mischtal← J. Gaudian

46'

N. Slavytskyi← M. Özgen

51'

B. Maßmann← M. Berrahou

52'

N. Slavytskyi

58'

V. Habarov

61'

C. Venos← N. Gergorec

61'

J. Asamoah← J. Karakis

65'

M. Ume← V. Habarov

69'

L. Gashi← B. Maßmann

76'

P. Müller← J. Estrada

76'

Y. Zeller← D. Aserov

81'

Y. SchollPenalty

Meerbusch

MSV

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Habarov

⚽

▼

Aserov

▼

Gergorec

⚽

▼

Karakis

Manager: D. Granata

46'▲K. Mischtal←▼J. Gaudian

61'▲C. Venos←▼N. Gergorec

61'▲J. Asamoah←▼J. Karakis

65'▲M. Ume←▼V. Habarov

76'▲P. Müller←▼J. Estrada

76'▲Y. Zeller←▼D. Aserov

Meerbusch U19 substitutes

MischtalVenosAsamoahUmeMüllerZellerVarzandeh

Manager: M. Jahn

46'▲N. Slavytskyi←▼M. Özgen

51'▲B. Maßmann←▼M. Berrahou

69'▲L. Gashi←▼B. Maßmann

MSV Duisburg U19 substitutes

SlavytskyiMaßmannGashiAdamidisSiemienikKönigMykhailenko