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Mrbat vs Al Oruba — Professional League 2019

Mrbat
Mrbat
FT
0 – 1
Al Oruba
Al Oruba
3/6/2020Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 22The Salalah Youth Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mrbat34%
×Draw27%
Al Oruba39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mrbat
1.21
Al Oruba
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Mrbat
0.69
Al Oruba
0.85

allows per match

Mrbat
1.77
Al Oruba
1.73

finishing

Mrbat+0.00on par
Al Oruba+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mrbat ↓

Al Oruba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mrbat or draw
61%
Mrbat or Al Oruba
73%
Draw or Al Oruba
66%

Winning margin

Mrbat wins by 2+
14%
Al Oruba wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Mrbat 1+ goals
70%
Mrbat 2+ goals
34%
Mrbat 3+ goals
12%
Al Oruba 1+ goals
73%
Al Oruba 2+ goals
38%
Al Oruba 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Mrbat (draw refunded)
47%
Al Oruba (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mrbat at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Al Oruba away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mrbat attack 0.69 + Al Oruba defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.21

Al Oruba attack 0.85 + Mrbat defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mrbat scores more
34%
level
27%
Al Oruba scores more
39%

Al Oruba at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Oruba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mrbat vs Al Oruba

Al Oruba beat Mrbat 1-0 in Professional League on March 6, 2020.

The match was played at The Salalah Youth Complex in Salalah.