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Al Oruba vs Mrbat — Professional League 2019

Al Oruba
Al Oruba
FT
0 – 0
Mrbat
Mrbat
11/29/2019Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 9Sur Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Al Oruba53%
×Draw24%
Mrbat23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Oruba
1.66
Mrbat
1.00

Al Oruba creates 66% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Al Oruba
0.77
Mrbat
0.85

allows per match

Al Oruba
1.15
Mrbat
2.54

finishing

Al Oruba+0.00on par
Mrbat+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Oruba ↓

Mrbat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Al Oruba or draw
77%
Al Oruba or Mrbat
76%
Draw or Mrbat
47%

Winning margin

Al Oruba wins by 2+
28%
Mrbat wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al Oruba 1+ goals
81%
Al Oruba 2+ goals
49%
Al Oruba 3+ goals
23%
Mrbat 1+ goals
63%
Mrbat 2+ goals
26%
Mrbat 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Oruba (draw refunded)
70%
Mrbat (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Oruba at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.15 · 26 matches

Mrbat away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Oruba attack 0.77 + Mrbat defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.66

Mrbat attack 0.85 + Al Oruba defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Al Oruba scores more
53%
level
24%
Mrbat scores more
23%

Al Oruba at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Al Oruba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Oruba 0 – 0 Mrbat

Al Oruba and Mrbat drew 0-0 in Professional League on November 29, 2019.

The match was played at Sur Sports Complex in Sur.