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MP vs KuPS — Suomen Cup 2018

MP
MP
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
KuPS
KuPS
6/13/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 6th RoundMikkelin Urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

MP27%
×Draw24%
KuPS49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MP
1.21
KuPS
1.71

KuPS creates 41% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 23 away

creates per match

MP
1.50
KuPS
1.91

allows per match

MP
1.50
KuPS
0.91

finishing

MP+0.00on par
KuPS+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MP ↓

KuPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

MP or draw
51%
MP or KuPS
76%
Draw or KuPS
73%

Winning margin

MP wins by 2+
11%
KuPS wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

MP 1+ goals
70%
MP 2+ goals
34%
MP 3+ goals
12%
KuPS 1+ goals
82%
KuPS 2+ goals
51%
KuPS 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

MP (draw refunded)
36%
KuPS (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MP at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

KuPS away — creates 1.91, concedes 0.91 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MP attack 1.50 + KuPS defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.21

KuPS attack 1.91 + MP defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

MP scores more
27%
level
24%
KuPS scores more
49%

KuPS at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "KuPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MP 0 – 1 KuPS

KuPS beat MP 1-0 in Suomen Cup on June 13, 2022.

The match was played at Mikkelin Urheilupuisto in Mikkeli.