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KuPS vs MP — Friendlies Clubs 2026

KuPS
KuPS
FT
9 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
MP
MP
1/11/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Lippumaen Kuplahalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

KuPS89%
×Draw8%
MP3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KuPS
3.33
MP
0.50

KuPS creates 566% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

KuPS
3.83
MP
0.67

allows per match

KuPS
0.33
MP
2.83

finishing

KuPS+0.00on par
MP+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KuPS ↓

MP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–012%
4–16%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (14%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

KuPS or draw
97%
KuPS or MP
92%
Draw or MP
11%

Winning margin

KuPS wins by 2+
73%
MP wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

KuPS 1+ goals
96%
KuPS 2+ goals
84%
KuPS 3+ goals
63%
MP 1+ goals
39%
MP 2+ goals
9%
MP 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

KuPS (draw refunded)
97%
MP (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KuPS at home — creates 3.83, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

MP away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KuPS attack 3.83 + MP defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 3.33

MP attack 0.67 + KuPS defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

KuPS scores more
89%
level
8%
MP scores more
3%

KuPS at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "KuPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KuPS vs MP

KuPS beat MP 9-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 11, 2025.

The match was played at Lippumaen Kuplahalli in Kuopio.