Moyola Park 0–1 Coagh United: Result & Stats

Moyola Park

FT

0 – 1

Coagh United

1/6/2024

League #561 · Round 14The Showgrounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Moyola Park69%

×Draw17%

Coagh United15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moyola ParkExpected goals in this matchCoagh United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.65

1.15

Moyola Park

2.65

Coagh United

1.15

Moyola Park creates 130% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 3 away

2.30

creates per match

1.00

1.30

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Moyola Park

2.30

Coagh United

1.00

allows per match

Moyola Park

1.30

Coagh United

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moyola Park+0.00on par

Coagh United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moyola Park ↓

Coagh United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Moyola Park or draw

85%

Moyola Park or Coagh United

83%

Draw or Coagh United

31%

Winning margin

Moyola Park wins by 2+

47%

Coagh United wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Moyola Park 1+ goals

93%

Moyola Park 2+ goals

74%

Moyola Park 3+ goals

48%

Coagh United 1+ goals

68%

Coagh United 2+ goals

32%

Coagh United 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Moyola Park (draw refunded)

83%

Coagh United (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moyola Park at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

Coagh United away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moyola Park attack 2.30 + Coagh United defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.65

Coagh United attack 1.00 + Moyola Park defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Moyola Park scores more

69%

level

17%

Coagh United scores more

15%

Moyola Park at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Moyola Park will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff