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Coagh United vs Moyola Park — League #561 2026

Coagh United
Coagh United
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Moyola Park
Moyola Park
8/29/2025League #561League #561 · Round 2Hagan Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Coagh United33%
×Draw25%
Moyola Park42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coagh United
1.31
Moyola Park
1.50

Moyola Park creates 15% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 28 away

creates per match

Coagh United
0.67
Moyola Park
1.32

allows per match

Coagh United
1.67
Moyola Park
1.96

finishing

Coagh United+0.00on par
Moyola Park+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coagh United ↓

Moyola Park →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Coagh United or draw
58%
Coagh United or Moyola Park
75%
Draw or Moyola Park
67%

Winning margin

Coagh United wins by 2+
14%
Moyola Park wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Coagh United 1+ goals
73%
Coagh United 2+ goals
38%
Coagh United 3+ goals
14%
Moyola Park 1+ goals
78%
Moyola Park 2+ goals
44%
Moyola Park 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Coagh United (draw refunded)
44%
Moyola Park (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coagh United at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Moyola Park away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.96 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coagh United attack 0.67 + Moyola Park defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.31

Moyola Park attack 1.32 + Coagh United defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Coagh United scores more
33%
level
25%
Moyola Park scores more
42%

Moyola Park at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Moyola Park will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Coagh United vs Moyola Park

Moyola Park beat Coagh United 3-0 in League #561 on August 29, 2025.

The match was played at Hagan Park in Coagh.