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Moyale Barracks vs Silver Strikers — Super League 2026

Moyale Barracks
Moyale Barracks
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Silver Strikers
Silver Strikers
R. Phiri 31'
Z. Kalima 73'
7/13/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 11Rumphi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Moyale Barracks36%
×Draw32%
Silver Strikers32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moyale Barracks
0.99
Silver Strikers
0.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 77 away

creates per match

Moyale Barracks
1.25
Silver Strikers
1.13

allows per match

Moyale Barracks
0.71
Silver Strikers
0.74

finishing

Moyale Barracks+0.00on par
Silver Strikers+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moyale Barracks ↓

Silver Strikers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Moyale Barracks or draw
68%
Moyale Barracks or Silver Strikers
68%
Draw or Silver Strikers
64%

Winning margin

Moyale Barracks wins by 2+
14%
Silver Strikers wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Moyale Barracks 1+ goals
63%
Moyale Barracks 2+ goals
26%
Moyale Barracks 3+ goals
8%
Silver Strikers 1+ goals
60%
Silver Strikers 2+ goals
23%
Silver Strikers 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)
53%
Silver Strikers (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moyale Barracks at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.71 · 76 matches

Silver Strikers away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.74 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moyale Barracks attack 1.25 + Silver Strikers defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.99

Silver Strikers attack 1.13 + Moyale Barracks defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Moyale Barracks scores more
36%
level
32%
Silver Strikers scores more
32%

Moyale Barracks at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Moyale Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
R. Phiri
73'
Z. Kalima

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moyale Barracks vs Silver Strikers

Moyale Barracks and Silver Strikers drew 1-1 in Super League on July 13, 2025.

Goals: R. Phiri (31'), Z. Kalima (73').

The match was played at Rumphi Stadium in Rhumpi.