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Moyale Barracks vs Ntopwa — Super League 2026

Moyale Barracks
Moyale Barracks
FT
1 – 1
Ntopwa
Ntopwa
7/11/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 18Mzuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Moyale Barracks59%
×Draw25%
Ntopwa16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moyale Barracks
1.61
Ntopwa
0.69

Moyale Barracks creates 133% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 16 away

creates per match

Moyale Barracks
1.23
Ntopwa
0.69

allows per match

Moyale Barracks
0.69
Ntopwa
2.00

finishing

Moyale Barracks+0.00on par
Ntopwa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moyale Barracks ↓

Ntopwa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Moyale Barracks or draw
84%
Moyale Barracks or Ntopwa
75%
Draw or Ntopwa
41%

Winning margin

Moyale Barracks wins by 2+
33%
Ntopwa wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Moyale Barracks 1+ goals
80%
Moyale Barracks 2+ goals
48%
Moyale Barracks 3+ goals
22%
Ntopwa 1+ goals
50%
Ntopwa 2+ goals
15%
Ntopwa 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)
79%
Ntopwa (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moyale Barracks at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.69 · 81 matches

Ntopwa away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moyale Barracks attack 1.23 + Ntopwa defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.61

Ntopwa attack 0.69 + Moyale Barracks defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Moyale Barracks scores more
59%
level
25%
Ntopwa scores more
16%

Moyale Barracks at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Moyale Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Moyale Barracks 1–1 Ntopwa

Moyale Barracks and Ntopwa drew 1-1 in Super League on July 11, 2021.

The match was played at Mzuzu Stadium in Mzuzu.