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Ntopwa vs Moyale Barracks — Super League 2026

Ntopwa
Ntopwa
FT
3 – 0
Moyale Barracks
Moyale Barracks
11/29/2020Super LeagueSuper League · Round 1Mpira Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ntopwa39%
×Draw27%
Moyale Barracks34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ntopwa
1.31
Moyale Barracks
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 84 away

creates per match

Ntopwa
1.11
Moyale Barracks
0.86

allows per match

Ntopwa
1.53
Moyale Barracks
1.50

finishing

Ntopwa+0.00on par
Moyale Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ntopwa ↓

Moyale Barracks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ntopwa or draw
66%
Ntopwa or Moyale Barracks
73%
Draw or Moyale Barracks
61%

Winning margin

Ntopwa wins by 2+
18%
Moyale Barracks wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ntopwa 1+ goals
73%
Ntopwa 2+ goals
38%
Ntopwa 3+ goals
14%
Moyale Barracks 1+ goals
70%
Moyale Barracks 2+ goals
34%
Moyale Barracks 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ntopwa (draw refunded)
54%
Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ntopwa at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Moyale Barracks away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.50 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ntopwa attack 1.11 + Moyale Barracks defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Moyale Barracks attack 0.86 + Ntopwa defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ntopwa scores more
39%
level
27%
Moyale Barracks scores more
34%

Ntopwa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ntopwa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ntopwa vs Moyale Barracks

Ntopwa beat Moyale Barracks 3-0 in Super League on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Mpira Stadium in Blantyre.