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Moyale Barracks vs Karonga United — Super League 2026

Moyale Barracks
Moyale Barracks
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Karonga United
Karonga United
8/3/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 4Rumphi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Moyale Barracks51%
×Draw28%
Karonga United21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moyale Barracks
1.33
Karonga United
0.73

Moyale Barracks creates 82% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 82 away

creates per match

Moyale Barracks
1.23
Karonga United
0.78

allows per match

Moyale Barracks
0.69
Karonga United
1.44

finishing

Moyale Barracks+0.00on par
Karonga United+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moyale Barracks ↓

Karonga United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Moyale Barracks or draw
79%
Moyale Barracks or Karonga United
72%
Draw or Karonga United
49%

Winning margin

Moyale Barracks wins by 2+
24%
Karonga United wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Moyale Barracks 1+ goals
74%
Moyale Barracks 2+ goals
38%
Moyale Barracks 3+ goals
15%
Karonga United 1+ goals
52%
Karonga United 2+ goals
17%
Karonga United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)
71%
Karonga United (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moyale Barracks at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.69 · 81 matches

Karonga United away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moyale Barracks attack 1.23 + Karonga United defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.33

Karonga United attack 0.78 + Moyale Barracks defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Moyale Barracks scores more
51%
level
28%
Karonga United scores more
21%

Moyale Barracks at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Moyale Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Moyale Barracks 0–1 Karonga United

Karonga United beat Moyale Barracks 1-0 in Super League on August 3, 2025.

The match was played at Rumphi Stadium in Rhumpi.