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Karonga United vs Moyale Barracks — Super League 2026

Karonga United
Karonga United
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Moyale Barracks
Moyale Barracks
8/24/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 25Karonga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Karonga United50%
×Draw28%
Moyale Barracks23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karonga United
1.38
Moyale Barracks
0.84

Karonga United creates 64% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 84 away

creates per match

Karonga United
1.26
Moyale Barracks
0.86

allows per match

Karonga United
0.83
Moyale Barracks
1.50

finishing

Karonga United+0.00on par
Moyale Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karonga United ↓

Moyale Barracks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Karonga United or draw
77%
Karonga United or Moyale Barracks
72%
Draw or Moyale Barracks
50%

Winning margin

Karonga United wins by 2+
24%
Moyale Barracks wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Karonga United 1+ goals
75%
Karonga United 2+ goals
40%
Karonga United 3+ goals
16%
Moyale Barracks 1+ goals
57%
Moyale Barracks 2+ goals
21%
Moyale Barracks 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Karonga United (draw refunded)
68%
Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karonga United at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.83 · 81 matches

Moyale Barracks away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.50 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karonga United attack 1.26 + Moyale Barracks defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Moyale Barracks attack 0.86 + Karonga United defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Karonga United scores more
50%
level
28%
Moyale Barracks scores more
23%

Karonga United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Karonga United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Karonga United 3–1 Moyale Barracks

Karonga United beat Moyale Barracks 3-1 in Super League on August 24, 2025.

The match was played at Karonga Stadium in Karonga.