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Moyale Barracks vs Kamuzu Barracks — Super League 2026

Moyale Barracks
Moyale Barracks
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kamuzu Barracks
Kamuzu Barracks
9/3/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 16Rumphi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Moyale Barracks43%
×Draw30%
Kamuzu Barracks26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moyale Barracks
1.17
Kamuzu Barracks
0.84

Moyale Barracks creates 39% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 81 away

creates per match

Moyale Barracks
1.23
Kamuzu Barracks
1.00

allows per match

Moyale Barracks
0.69
Kamuzu Barracks
1.11

finishing

Moyale Barracks+0.00on par
Kamuzu Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moyale Barracks ↓

Kamuzu Barracks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Moyale Barracks or draw
74%
Moyale Barracks or Kamuzu Barracks
70%
Draw or Kamuzu Barracks
57%

Winning margin

Moyale Barracks wins by 2+
19%
Kamuzu Barracks wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Moyale Barracks 1+ goals
69%
Moyale Barracks 2+ goals
33%
Moyale Barracks 3+ goals
11%
Kamuzu Barracks 1+ goals
57%
Kamuzu Barracks 2+ goals
21%
Kamuzu Barracks 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)
62%
Kamuzu Barracks (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moyale Barracks at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.69 · 81 matches

Kamuzu Barracks away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moyale Barracks attack 1.23 + Kamuzu Barracks defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.17

Kamuzu Barracks attack 1.00 + Moyale Barracks defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Moyale Barracks scores more
43%
level
30%
Kamuzu Barracks scores more
26%

Moyale Barracks at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Moyale Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Moyale Barracks 0–1 Kamuzu Barracks

Kamuzu Barracks beat Moyale Barracks 1-0 in Super League on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Rumphi Stadium in Rhumpi.