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Kamuzu Barracks vs Moyale Barracks — Super League 2026

Kamuzu Barracks
Kamuzu Barracks
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Moyale Barracks
Moyale Barracks
5/18/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 6Aubrey Dimba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Kamuzu Barracks47%
×Draw29%
Moyale Barracks24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kamuzu Barracks
1.25
Moyale Barracks
0.81

Kamuzu Barracks creates 54% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 78 away

creates per match

Kamuzu Barracks
1.08
Moyale Barracks
0.83

allows per match

Kamuzu Barracks
0.79
Moyale Barracks
1.41

finishing

Kamuzu Barracks+0.00on par
Moyale Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamuzu Barracks ↓

Moyale Barracks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kamuzu Barracks or draw
76%
Kamuzu Barracks or Moyale Barracks
71%
Draw or Moyale Barracks
53%

Winning margin

Kamuzu Barracks wins by 2+
21%
Moyale Barracks wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kamuzu Barracks 1+ goals
71%
Kamuzu Barracks 2+ goals
36%
Kamuzu Barracks 3+ goals
13%
Moyale Barracks 1+ goals
56%
Moyale Barracks 2+ goals
19%
Moyale Barracks 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kamuzu Barracks (draw refunded)
66%
Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamuzu Barracks at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.79 · 77 matches

Moyale Barracks away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.41 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamuzu Barracks attack 1.08 + Moyale Barracks defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Moyale Barracks attack 0.83 + Kamuzu Barracks defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kamuzu Barracks scores more
47%
level
29%
Moyale Barracks scores more
24%

Kamuzu Barracks at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kamuzu Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Kamuzu Barracks 0–0 Moyale Barracks

Kamuzu Barracks and Moyale Barracks drew 0-0 in Super League on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Aubrey Dimba Stadium in Kapiri.