Moyale Barracks 1–1 Bangwe All Stars

Moyale Barracks

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bangwe All Stars

8/27/2023

Super League · Round 15Rumphi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Moyale Barracks52%

×Draw28%

Bangwe All Stars20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moyale BarracksExpected goals in this matchBangwe All Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.71

Moyale Barracks

1.35

Bangwe All Stars

0.71

Moyale Barracks creates 90% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 30 away

1.23

creates per match

0.73

0.69

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Moyale Barracks

1.23

Bangwe All Stars

0.73

allows per match

Moyale Barracks

0.69

Bangwe All Stars

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moyale Barracks+0.00on par

Bangwe All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moyale Barracks ↓

Bangwe All Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Moyale Barracks or draw

80%

Moyale Barracks or Bangwe All Stars

72%

Draw or Bangwe All Stars

48%

Winning margin

Moyale Barracks wins by 2+

25%

Bangwe All Stars wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Moyale Barracks 1+ goals

74%

Moyale Barracks 2+ goals

39%

Moyale Barracks 3+ goals

15%

Bangwe All Stars 1+ goals

51%

Bangwe All Stars 2+ goals

16%

Bangwe All Stars 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)

73%

Bangwe All Stars (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moyale Barracks at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.69 · 81 matches

Bangwe All Stars away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moyale Barracks attack 1.23 + Bangwe All Stars defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.35

Bangwe All Stars attack 0.73 + Moyale Barracks defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Moyale Barracks scores more

52%

level

28%

Bangwe All Stars scores more

20%

Moyale Barracks at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Moyale Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff