Bangwe All Stars 1–0 Moyale Barracks

Bangwe All Stars

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Moyale Barracks

11/3/2024

Super League · Round 20Balaka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bangwe All Stars46%

×Draw29%

Moyale Barracks25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bangwe All StarsExpected goals in this matchMoyale Barracks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.86

Bangwe All Stars

1.29

Moyale Barracks

0.86

Bangwe All Stars creates 50% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 84 away

1.07

creates per match

0.86

0.87

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Bangwe All Stars

1.07

Moyale Barracks

0.86

allows per match

Bangwe All Stars

0.87

Moyale Barracks

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bangwe All Stars+0.00on par

Moyale Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangwe All Stars ↓

Moyale Barracks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Bangwe All Stars or draw

75%

Bangwe All Stars or Moyale Barracks

71%

Draw or Moyale Barracks

54%

Winning margin

Bangwe All Stars wins by 2+

21%

Moyale Barracks wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bangwe All Stars 1+ goals

72%

Bangwe All Stars 2+ goals

37%

Bangwe All Stars 3+ goals

14%

Moyale Barracks 1+ goals

58%

Moyale Barracks 2+ goals

21%

Moyale Barracks 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Bangwe All Stars (draw refunded)

65%

Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangwe All Stars at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.87 · 30 matches

Moyale Barracks away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.50 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangwe All Stars attack 1.07 + Moyale Barracks defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Moyale Barracks attack 0.86 + Bangwe All Stars defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bangwe All Stars scores more

46%

level

29%

Moyale Barracks scores more

25%

Bangwe All Stars at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bangwe All Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff