Moura 0–1 Aljustrelense: Result & Stats

Moura

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Aljustrelense

1/13/2021

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H · Group H - 10Complexo Desportivo do MAC Campo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Moura42%

×Draw23%

Aljustrelense35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MouraExpected goals in this matchAljustrelense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.55

Moura

1.70

Aljustrelense

1.55

Moura creates 10% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

1.00

creates per match

0.40

2.70

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Moura

1.00

Aljustrelense

0.40

allows per match

Moura

2.70

Aljustrelense

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moura+0.00on par

Aljustrelense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moura ↓

Aljustrelense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Moura or draw

65%

Moura or Aljustrelense

77%

Draw or Aljustrelense

58%

Winning margin

Moura wins by 2+

21%

Aljustrelense wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Moura 1+ goals

82%

Moura 2+ goals

51%

Moura 3+ goals

24%

Aljustrelense 1+ goals

79%

Aljustrelense 2+ goals

46%

Aljustrelense 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Moura (draw refunded)

54%

Aljustrelense (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moura at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.70 · 10 matches

Aljustrelense away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moura attack 1.00 + Aljustrelense defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.70

Aljustrelense attack 0.40 + Moura defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Moura scores more

42%

level

23%

Aljustrelense scores more

35%

Moura at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Moura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff