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Aljustrelense vs Moura — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H 2020

Aljustrelense
Aljustrelense
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Moura
Moura
4/3/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group HCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H · Group H - 21Estádio Municipal de Aljustrel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Aljustrelense36%
×Draw28%
Moura36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aljustrelense
1.20
Moura
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Aljustrelense
0.80
Moura
0.70

allows per match

Aljustrelense
1.70
Moura
1.60

finishing

Aljustrelense+0.00on par
Moura+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aljustrelense ↓

Moura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Aljustrelense or draw
64%
Aljustrelense or Moura
72%
Draw or Moura
64%

Winning margin

Aljustrelense wins by 2+
15%
Moura wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Aljustrelense 1+ goals
70%
Aljustrelense 2+ goals
34%
Aljustrelense 3+ goals
12%
Moura 1+ goals
70%
Moura 2+ goals
34%
Moura 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Aljustrelense (draw refunded)
50%
Moura (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aljustrelense at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Moura away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aljustrelense attack 0.80 + Moura defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.20

Moura attack 0.70 + Aljustrelense defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Aljustrelense scores more
36%
level
28%
Moura scores more
36%

Aljustrelense at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Aljustrelense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aljustrelense vs Moura

Aljustrelense beat Moura 2-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H on April 3, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Aljustrel in Aljustrel.