Mounties Wanderers 0–2 Inter Lions: Result & Stats

Mounties Wanderers

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Inter Lions

S. Armson 78'

N. Kuleski 29' (pen)

4/26/2025

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 12Wanderers Football Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Mounties Wanderers31%

×Draw22%

Inter Lions47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mounties WanderersExpected goals in this matchInter Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.88

Mounties Wanderers

1.48

Inter Lions

1.88

Inter Lions creates 27% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 57 away

1.15

creates per match

1.53

2.23

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Mounties Wanderers

1.15

Inter Lions

1.53

allows per match

Mounties Wanderers

2.23

Inter Lions

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mounties Wanderers+0.00on par

Inter Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mounties Wanderers ↓

Inter Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Mounties Wanderers or draw

53%

Mounties Wanderers or Inter Lions

78%

Draw or Inter Lions

69%

Winning margin

Mounties Wanderers wins by 2+

14%

Inter Lions wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Mounties Wanderers 1+ goals

77%

Mounties Wanderers 2+ goals

43%

Mounties Wanderers 3+ goals

19%

Inter Lions 1+ goals

85%

Inter Lions 2+ goals

56%

Inter Lions 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Mounties Wanderers (draw refunded)

39%

Inter Lions (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mounties Wanderers at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.23 · 48 matches

Inter Lions away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.82 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mounties Wanderers attack 1.15 + Inter Lions defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.48

Inter Lions attack 1.53 + Mounties Wanderers defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mounties Wanderers scores more

31%

level

22%

Inter Lions scores more

47%

Inter Lions at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Inter Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

N. KuleskiPenalty

78'

S. Armson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff