Inter Lions 3–2 Mounties Wanderers: Result & Stats

Inter Lions

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Mounties Wanderers

J. Khoury 90+5'

S. Armson 82', 44'

J. Cakovski 57'

J. McGing 18'

8/9/2025

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 27Majors Bay Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Inter Lions48%

×Draw22%

Mounties Wanderers29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter LionsExpected goals in this matchMounties Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.42

Inter Lions

1.89

Mounties Wanderers

1.42

Inter Lions creates 33% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 50 away

1.70

creates per match

1.24

1.59

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Inter Lions

1.70

Mounties Wanderers

1.24

allows per match

Inter Lions

1.59

Mounties Wanderers

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Lions+0.00on par

Mounties Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Lions ↓

Mounties Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Inter Lions or draw

71%

Inter Lions or Mounties Wanderers

78%

Draw or Mounties Wanderers

52%

Winning margin

Inter Lions wins by 2+

27%

Mounties Wanderers wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Inter Lions 1+ goals

85%

Inter Lions 2+ goals

56%

Inter Lions 3+ goals

29%

Mounties Wanderers 1+ goals

76%

Mounties Wanderers 2+ goals

41%

Mounties Wanderers 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Inter Lions (draw refunded)

63%

Mounties Wanderers (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Lions at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.59 · 56 matches

Mounties Wanderers away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.08 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Lions attack 1.70 + Mounties Wanderers defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.89

Mounties Wanderers attack 1.24 + Inter Lions defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Inter Lions scores more

48%

level

22%

Mounties Wanderers scores more

29%

Inter Lions at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Inter Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

J. McGing

44'

S. Armson

57'

J. Cakovski

82'

S. Armson

90+5'

J. Khoury

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff