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Mounties Wanderers vs Hakoah Sydney City — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Mounties Wanderers
Mounties Wanderers
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hakoah Sydney City
Hakoah Sydney City
Unknown 13'
3/15/2025New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 6Wanderers Football Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Mounties Wanderers29%
×Draw22%
Hakoah Sydney City49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mounties Wanderers
1.44
Hakoah Sydney City
1.94

Hakoah Sydney City creates 35% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 75 away

creates per match

Mounties Wanderers
1.15
Hakoah Sydney City
1.64

allows per match

Mounties Wanderers
2.23
Hakoah Sydney City
1.72

finishing

Mounties Wanderers+0.00on par
Hakoah Sydney City+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mounties Wanderers ↓

Hakoah Sydney City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Mounties Wanderers or draw
51%
Mounties Wanderers or Hakoah Sydney City
78%
Draw or Hakoah Sydney City
71%

Winning margin

Mounties Wanderers wins by 2+
13%
Hakoah Sydney City wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Mounties Wanderers 1+ goals
76%
Mounties Wanderers 2+ goals
42%
Mounties Wanderers 3+ goals
18%
Hakoah Sydney City 1+ goals
86%
Hakoah Sydney City 2+ goals
58%
Hakoah Sydney City 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Mounties Wanderers (draw refunded)
37%
Hakoah Sydney City (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mounties Wanderers at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.23 · 48 matches

Hakoah Sydney City away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.72 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mounties Wanderers attack 1.15 + Hakoah Sydney City defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.44

Hakoah Sydney City attack 1.64 + Mounties Wanderers defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mounties Wanderers scores more
29%
level
22%
Hakoah Sydney City scores more
49%

Hakoah Sydney City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hakoah Sydney City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
21'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mounties Wanderers 1 – 0 Hakoah Sydney City

Mounties Wanderers beat Hakoah Sydney City 1-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on March 15, 2025.

Goals: ? (13').

The match was played at Wanderers Football Park in Sydney.