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Hakoah Sydney City vs Mounties Wanderers — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Hakoah Sydney City
Hakoah Sydney City
FT
2 – 1
Mounties Wanderers
Mounties Wanderers
6/4/2022New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 13Hensley Athletic Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Hakoah Sydney City50%
×Draw22%
Mounties Wanderers28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hakoah Sydney City
1.96
Mounties Wanderers
1.42

Hakoah Sydney City creates 38% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 50 away

creates per match

Hakoah Sydney City
1.84
Mounties Wanderers
1.24

allows per match

Hakoah Sydney City
1.59
Mounties Wanderers
2.08

finishing

Hakoah Sydney City+0.00on par
Mounties Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hakoah Sydney City ↓

Mounties Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Hakoah Sydney City or draw
72%
Hakoah Sydney City or Mounties Wanderers
78%
Draw or Mounties Wanderers
50%

Winning margin

Hakoah Sydney City wins by 2+
28%
Mounties Wanderers wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hakoah Sydney City 1+ goals
86%
Hakoah Sydney City 2+ goals
58%
Hakoah Sydney City 3+ goals
31%
Mounties Wanderers 1+ goals
76%
Mounties Wanderers 2+ goals
41%
Mounties Wanderers 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hakoah Sydney City (draw refunded)
64%
Mounties Wanderers (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hakoah Sydney City at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

Mounties Wanderers away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.08 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hakoah Sydney City attack 1.84 + Mounties Wanderers defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.96

Mounties Wanderers attack 1.24 + Hakoah Sydney City defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hakoah Sydney City scores more
50%
level
22%
Mounties Wanderers scores more
28%

Hakoah Sydney City at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hakoah Sydney City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Hakoah Sydney City 2–1 Mounties Wanderers

Hakoah Sydney City beat Mounties Wanderers 2-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on June 4, 2022.

The match was played at Hensley Athletic Field in Eastgardens, Botany Bay.