Mounties Wanderers 3–2 Dulwich Hill: Result & Stats

Mounties Wanderers

FT

3 – 2

Dulwich Hill

7/2/2023

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 22Cook Park Mount Pritchard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Mounties Wanderers37%

×Draw23%

Dulwich Hill40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mounties WanderersExpected goals in this matchDulwich Hill

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.75

Mounties Wanderers

1.67

Dulwich Hill

1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 57 away

1.15

creates per match

1.28

2.23

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Mounties Wanderers

1.15

Dulwich Hill

1.28

allows per match

Mounties Wanderers

2.23

Dulwich Hill

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mounties Wanderers+0.00on par

Dulwich Hill+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mounties Wanderers ↓

Dulwich Hill →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Mounties Wanderers or draw

60%

Mounties Wanderers or Dulwich Hill

77%

Draw or Dulwich Hill

63%

Winning margin

Mounties Wanderers wins by 2+

19%

Dulwich Hill wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Mounties Wanderers 1+ goals

81%

Mounties Wanderers 2+ goals

50%

Mounties Wanderers 3+ goals

23%

Dulwich Hill 1+ goals

83%

Dulwich Hill 2+ goals

52%

Dulwich Hill 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Mounties Wanderers (draw refunded)

48%

Dulwich Hill (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mounties Wanderers at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.23 · 48 matches

Dulwich Hill away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.18 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mounties Wanderers attack 1.15 + Dulwich Hill defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.67

Dulwich Hill attack 1.28 + Mounties Wanderers defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mounties Wanderers scores more

37%

level

23%

Dulwich Hill scores more

40%

Dulwich Hill at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dulwich Hill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff