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Dulwich Hill vs Mounties Wanderers — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Dulwich Hill
Dulwich Hill
FT
4 – 3
Mounties Wanderers
Mounties Wanderers
3/18/2023New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 7Arlington Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Dulwich Hill42%
×Draw23%
Mounties Wanderers34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dulwich Hill
1.72
Mounties Wanderers
1.53

Dulwich Hill creates 12% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 50 away

creates per match

Dulwich Hill
1.35
Mounties Wanderers
1.24

allows per match

Dulwich Hill
1.82
Mounties Wanderers
2.08

finishing

Dulwich Hill+0.00on par
Mounties Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dulwich Hill ↓

Mounties Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Dulwich Hill or draw
66%
Dulwich Hill or Mounties Wanderers
77%
Draw or Mounties Wanderers
58%

Winning margin

Dulwich Hill wins by 2+
22%
Mounties Wanderers wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dulwich Hill 1+ goals
82%
Dulwich Hill 2+ goals
51%
Dulwich Hill 3+ goals
25%
Mounties Wanderers 1+ goals
78%
Mounties Wanderers 2+ goals
45%
Mounties Wanderers 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Dulwich Hill (draw refunded)
55%
Mounties Wanderers (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dulwich Hill at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.82 · 57 matches

Mounties Wanderers away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.08 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dulwich Hill attack 1.35 + Mounties Wanderers defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.72

Mounties Wanderers attack 1.24 + Dulwich Hill defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dulwich Hill scores more
42%
level
23%
Mounties Wanderers scores more
34%

Dulwich Hill at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dulwich Hill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dulwich Hill vs Mounties Wanderers

Dulwich Hill beat Mounties Wanderers 4-3 in New South Wales NPL 2 on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Arlington Oval in Dulwich Hill.