Mounties Wanderers 2–1 Central Coast United

Mounties Wanderers

FT

2 – 1

Central Coast United

5/20/2023

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 16Cook Park Mount Pritchard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mounties Wanderers43%

×Draw21%

Central Coast United35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mounties WanderersExpected goals in this matchCentral Coast United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.81

Mounties Wanderers

2.01

Central Coast United

1.81

Mounties Wanderers creates 11% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 15 away

1.15

creates per match

1.40

2.23

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Mounties Wanderers

1.15

Central Coast United

1.40

allows per match

Mounties Wanderers

2.23

Central Coast United

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mounties Wanderers+0.00on par

Central Coast United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mounties Wanderers ↓

Central Coast United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Mounties Wanderers or draw

65%

Mounties Wanderers or Central Coast United

79%

Draw or Central Coast United

57%

Winning margin

Mounties Wanderers wins by 2+

24%

Central Coast United wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Mounties Wanderers 1+ goals

87%

Mounties Wanderers 2+ goals

59%

Mounties Wanderers 3+ goals

32%

Central Coast United 1+ goals

84%

Central Coast United 2+ goals

54%

Central Coast United 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Mounties Wanderers (draw refunded)

55%

Central Coast United (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mounties Wanderers at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.23 · 48 matches

Central Coast United away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mounties Wanderers attack 1.15 + Central Coast United defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.01

Central Coast United attack 1.40 + Mounties Wanderers defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mounties Wanderers scores more

43%

level

21%

Central Coast United scores more

35%

Mounties Wanderers at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mounties Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff