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Central Coast United vs Mounties Wanderers — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Central Coast United
Central Coast United
FT
1 – 1
Mounties Wanderers
Mounties Wanderers
2/4/2023New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 1Pluim Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Central Coast United33%
×Draw22%
Mounties Wanderers44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Coast United
1.58
Mounties Wanderers
1.85

Mounties Wanderers creates 17% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 50 away

creates per match

Central Coast United
1.07
Mounties Wanderers
1.24

allows per match

Central Coast United
2.47
Mounties Wanderers
2.08

finishing

Central Coast United+0.00on par
Mounties Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast United ↓

Mounties Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Central Coast United or draw
56%
Central Coast United or Mounties Wanderers
78%
Draw or Mounties Wanderers
67%

Winning margin

Central Coast United wins by 2+
16%
Mounties Wanderers wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Central Coast United 1+ goals
79%
Central Coast United 2+ goals
47%
Central Coast United 3+ goals
21%
Mounties Wanderers 1+ goals
84%
Mounties Wanderers 2+ goals
55%
Mounties Wanderers 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Central Coast United (draw refunded)
43%
Mounties Wanderers (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast United at home — creates 1.07, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

Mounties Wanderers away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.08 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast United attack 1.07 + Mounties Wanderers defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.58

Mounties Wanderers attack 1.24 + Central Coast United defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Central Coast United scores more
33%
level
22%
Mounties Wanderers scores more
44%

Mounties Wanderers at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mounties Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Central Coast United 1–1 Mounties Wanderers

Central Coast United and Mounties Wanderers drew 1-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on February 4, 2023.

The match was played at Pluim Park in Lisarow.