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Mounties Wanderers vs Bulls Academy — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Mounties Wanderers
Mounties Wanderers
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Bulls Academy
Bulls Academy
Z. Helweh 62' (pen)
D. Bosnjak 2'
5/17/2025New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 15Wanderers Football Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Mounties Wanderers26%
×Draw22%
Bulls Academy52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mounties Wanderers
1.32
Bulls Academy
1.96

Bulls Academy creates 48% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 43 away

creates per match

Mounties Wanderers
1.15
Bulls Academy
1.70

allows per match

Mounties Wanderers
2.23
Bulls Academy
1.49

finishing

Mounties Wanderers+0.00on par
Bulls Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mounties Wanderers ↓

Bulls Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Mounties Wanderers or draw
48%
Mounties Wanderers or Bulls Academy
78%
Draw or Bulls Academy
74%

Winning margin

Mounties Wanderers wins by 2+
11%
Bulls Academy wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Mounties Wanderers 1+ goals
73%
Mounties Wanderers 2+ goals
38%
Mounties Wanderers 3+ goals
15%
Bulls Academy 1+ goals
86%
Bulls Academy 2+ goals
58%
Bulls Academy 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Mounties Wanderers (draw refunded)
33%
Bulls Academy (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mounties Wanderers at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.23 · 48 matches

Bulls Academy away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.49 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mounties Wanderers attack 1.15 + Bulls Academy defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.32

Bulls Academy attack 1.70 + Mounties Wanderers defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mounties Wanderers scores more
26%
level
22%
Bulls Academy scores more
52%

Bulls Academy at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bulls Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
D. Bosnjak
62'
Z. HelwehPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mounties Wanderers 0 – 2 Bulls Academy

Bulls Academy beat Mounties Wanderers 2-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on May 17, 2025.

Goals: D. Bosnjak (2'), Z. Helweh (62' pen).

The match was played at Wanderers Football Park in Sydney.